17 เม.ย. 56 ราคาทองคำแนวโน้มเชิงลบ เน้น Short Position

นักลงทุนตื่น พิษไซปรัส Panic sell ดันราคาทองร่วงหนัก

คลาสสิก โกลด์ฯ ชี้ราคาทองอาจร่วงต่อเนื่อง เน้น Short Position

ราคาทองคำเจอพิษไซปรัสกดราคาทองคำร่วงหนัก อาจพบการ Rebound ช่วงสั้น แต่แนวโน้มหลักยังลงได้อีก คลาสสิก โกลด์ฯ แนะนำนักลงทุนเน้นการเข้า Short เมื่อราคาเข้าชนแนวต้าน ทั้งนี้ เปิดตลาด อาจพบ Panic Sell ดังนั้น ผู้มี Short ควรปิด Position เพื่อ lock gain SET50 ยังมีปรับลดลงได้ โดยมีฐานรับที่บริเวณ 960/935 ทั้งนี้ ภาพระยะกลางเริ่มมีแนวโน้มเชิงลบ ดังนั้น เน้น Short Position

นางสาวณัฐฑี จุฑาวรากุล ประธานเจ้าหน้าที่บริหาร บริษัท คลาสสิก โกลด์ ฟิวเจอร์ส จำกัด เปิดเผยว่า “ราคาทองคำร่วงลงไปแรงกว่า116 USDต่อออนซ์ จากราคาปิดเมื่อวันที่ 12 เม.ย. เนื่องจาก ข่าวแนวโน้มการขายทองคำออกมาของไซปรัส เพื่อแก้ไขปัญหาหนี้ การปรับลดการคาดการณ์ราคาทองคำของหลายสถาบันทางการเงิน และการขายอย่างต่อเนื่องของกองทุน SPDR ทำให้ตลาดสูญเสียความเชื่อมั่น อีกทั้ง เมื่อราคาทองคำหลุดแนวรับสำคัญที่บริเวณ 1,525ทำให้เกิด Panic sell จนทำให้ราคาทองคำทำ Low สุดที่บริเวณ 1,321 ทั้งนี้ ราคาทองคำในช่วงเช้าวันนี้ (17 เม.ย.) มีแนวโน้ม Rebound กลับขึ้นมา เนื่องจาก ราคาเข้าชนแนวรับสำคัญ อีกทั้ง ข่าว IMF ลดคาดการณ์เศรษฐกิจโลก กระแสการคาดการณ์ที่ว่าเฟด อาจจะใช้มาตรการผ่อนคลายการเงินเชิงปริมาณ (QE)ต่อไป ความตึงเครียดคาบสมุทรเกาหลี และเหตุระเบิดที่ประเทศสหรัฐ รวมถึงการปรับร่วงลงมาแรงในช่วงก่อนหน้า อาจช่วยพยุงราคาทองคำให้ยังยืนเหนือแนวรับบริเวณ 1,300อย่างไรก็ตาม แนวโน้มหลักยังมีโอกาสปรับลดลง ดังนั้น เน้นการ Short position เมื่อถึงบริเวณแนวต้าน ในด้านดัชนีดาวโจนส์ ปิดที่ระดับ 14,756.78 จุด เพิ่มขึ้น 157.58 จุด ดัชนีดาวโจนส์ สามารถ Rebound กลับขึ้นมา แต่ทั้งนี้ เนื่องจาก แรงซื้อเบาบาง ดังนั้น อาจกลับมาอ่อนตัวอีกครั้ง โดยแนวโน้มเงินบาทวันนี้ มีแนวโน้มกลับมาแข็งค่า จากการอ่อนค่าของค่าเงิน US dollar ส่วนราคาน้ำมันดิบ Nymex ปรับตัวลดลง เนื่องจาก ได้รับแรงกดดันจากตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจจีนและสหรัฐที่บ่งชี้ว่า อุปสงค์น้ำมันในตลาดโลกอาจขยับขึ้นเพียงเล็กน้อย แต่ทั้งนี้ อาจพบการ Reboundกลับขึ้นมาในช่วงสั้น

ราคาทองมีการปิดลดลง 116 USDต่อออนซ์(จากราคาปิดเมื่อวันที่ 12 เม.ย.) ปิดที่ 1,367 USDต่อออนซ์ มีความเคลื่อนไหวในกรอบระหว่าง 1,321 –1,495 USDต่อออนซ์ ในช่วงเช้าวันนี้ราคาเคลื่อนไหวบริเวณ 1,381 USDต่อออนซ์ ส่วนภาพกราฟทางเทคนิคราคาทองคำมีโอกาสอ่อนตัว เมื่อราคาเข้าชนแนวต้านอีกครั้ง โดยวันนี้ (17 เม.ย.) มีแนวต้านบริเวณ 1,390/1,400และแนวรับ 1,340/1,320 USD/THB ปิดที่ 28.96 บาทต่อUSD เช้านี้ทรงตัวบริเวณ 28.93 วันนี้มีแนวต้านบริเวณ 29.3 / 29.45 แนวรับบริเวณ 28.7 / 28.55 ICE Brent ปิดที่บริเวณ 100.10 ดอลลาร์ต่อบาร์เรล วันนี้มีแนวต้านบริเวณ 101.2 / 102.4 / 103.2 และแนวรับบริเวณ 98.0

สำหรับปัจจัยที่ต้องติดตาม ได้แก่ พ.ร.บ. เงินกู้ 2 ล้านล้านบาท จะขัดต่อรัฐธรรมนูญหรือไม่,รายงานผลการประชุมคณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน (17เม.ย.),การประกาศดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นภาคอุตสาหกรรม, ยอดการผลิตและส่งออกรถยนต์ รถจักรยานยนต์และชิ้นส่วนยานยนต์ (18 เม.ย.)

ด้านโลหะเงินดิ่งหนักตามทองคำ แต่คาดว่าจะมีแรงซื้อ cover short ทำให้ราคาในช่วงสั้นมีโอกาสปรับตัวขึ้นได้ในกรอบจำกัด ก่อนจะปรับตัวลงอีกครั้ง ซึ่ง rsiไม่ได้ยืนยันว่า 22.07 เป็นจุดต่ำสุดแล้วหรือยัง ให้แนวต้านบริเวณ 24.36 / 25.77 ให้แนวรับบริเวณ 22.07

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